RE: Remember when

From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Thu Jan 16 2003 - 18:50:41 MST


avatar wrote,

> REMEMBER WHEN...

I love the theme of this post! But I do have a few nitpicks...

> Remember when..
> At high school in the 1970s you read commentators saying
> categorically that cloning could never successfully occur
> in our lifetime. It's only science fiction...

If you're talking about human cloning, we're still waiting.

And if those commentators were 40 years old, the are probably dead by now
and never did see the current day in their lifetimes.

> In the 1970s people stared at you and shook their heads
> when you claimed O'Neill colonies, automated linear
> accelerators on the moon and La Grange point inhabitation
> would happen in our lifetime. It's only science fiction.

Still waiting...

> Remember when...
> In 1980 people stared at you and shook their heads when
> you claimed automated planes and beam weapons
> were the future of warfare in the relatively near
> future. It's only science fiction.

I think the jury's still out on this one. I know it is the planned future,
but I'm still not convinced that it will work anytime soon.

> Remember when...
> In 1982 people stared at you and shook their heads
> when you claimed principles of automation including
> modularity and self-reproduction would lead to the
> abolition of manual work. It's only science fiction.

Your kidding right? You expect the abolition of manual work in your
lifetime? I don't.

> Remember when...
> In the early 1980s people stared at you and shook
> their heads when you claimed new materials would
> lead to space towers in our lifetime. It's only
> science fiction.

This is still not feasible yet. I think the claims are exaggerated.

> Remember when...
> In the late 1980s people stared at you and shook
> their heads when you claimed new experiments on
> animals resulting in extended lifespan would have
> an impact on them in a few decades.

Maybe calorie restriction might help some, but we don't have any major
extensions in lifespan yet.

These were all good points, but many of them are still science fiction. I
am concerned that anybody would confuse them with proven facts at this
stage. They are worthwhile endeavors for investigation, but they are
certainly not accomplished yet or definitely certain.

--
Harvey Newstrom, CISSP <http://HarveyNewstrom.com>


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