From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sun Jan 12 2003 - 07:09:17 MST
On Sun, 12 Jan 2003, avatar wrote:
> This thought experiment is based on the premise that in 2010 the ability
> to fix all major medical problems has been achieved (heart attack,
> stroke, cancer and lung problems) and that by 2015 the ability to
> achieve some forms of youthful appearance will have been achieved
> (non-wrinkly skin, no moles, hair regrowth, control of hair colour).
You won't even be close to fixing the major causes of death by 2010.
If by 2005 we fully understand how to isolate, cultivate and amplify
adult stem cells (pretty unlikely as well IMO), then you might begin
to make a major dent in the major causes of death starting around 2020
(at least in the well developed countries). Even when you have fixed
the major causes of death, it seems likely that a host of new ailments
(akin to Parkinson's, Alzheimer's, etc., i.e. late onset diseases)
will begin to appear as you start having more people push into their
110's, 120's, etc. Those may require decades of study to unravel and
fix.
> It is also premised on the notion that once assembler technology is
> achieved (I predict in 2020, but this date is not crucial) it in
> conjunction with the Singularity and advances in computing will allow
> for rapid movement from projected lifespan extension of decades and
> centuries to indefinite extension.
Assembler technology is not required. A path to manufacture real nanoscale
machines, e.g. real nanorobots, *is* required (I've discussed one in my
Protein Based Assembly of Nanoscale Parts paper). The singularity is not
required either. Significant increases in computing capacity will probably
make things go faster because it will speed up the semi-automation of the
design of nanoscale parts and the simulation of functional nanomachines.
Robert
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