From: avatar (avatar@renegadeclothing.com.au)
Date: Sun Jan 12 2003 - 00:17:53 MST
RUMINATIONS ON IMMORTALITY FROM 1910 TO THE ACHIEVEMENT OF SELF-REPLICATING NANOTECHNOLGICAL ASSEMBLERS
This thought experiment is based on the premise that in 2010 the ability to fix all major medical problems has been achieved (heart attack, stroke, cancer and lung problems) and that by 2015 the ability to achieve some forms of youthful appearance will have been achieved (non-wrinkly skin, no moles, hair regrowth, control of hair colour). It is also premised on the notion that once assembler technology is achieved (I predict in 2020, but this date is not crucial) it in conjunction with the Singularity and advances in computing will allow for rapid movement from projected lifespan extension of decades and centuries to indefinite extension.
It is interesting to consider that there were 65,000 centenarians in the US In 2000. If we take the Danish graph below as an example we can expect twice this population in the US by 2010. This means that roughly one baby in 700 in 1910 in the US was immortal. (Several readers of the first modern sf novel in the US (Hugo Gernsback's chunky Ralph 124C 41, published 1911-12 and in 1925 as a book) will live to see his dreams accomplished in their bodies and the wider world.
I note that older immortals are largely Western and females are predominant. The oldest immortals will have retired and therefore have little influence politically in the near future but may be very interesting socially.
Immortals come in various groups according to time of birth.
1910-1930 (more female and small in numbers)
1930s (more female and beginning to grow in numbers)
1940s (more female and approaching 50% of all newborn Western females from this decade)
1950s
1960s
1970-2010
2010-2019
People are generally held to be particularly influenced by the years 0 to 7 (some say particularly 2-5). Women born in the 30s and 40s will tend to influenced by the Great Depression and World War II. They should have a fear of poverty, totalitarianism, war, be strong on women's work, moderate on women's rights and moderate on Christianity. Their numbers in the West should be about half their numbers at birth in 1940-49, when the world's population was smaller (130 million US 1940, world about 2 billion), so perhaps about ten million American and European immortal women in this decade-origin bracket (the statistics on this will presumably be very complex due to the average lifespan changing over the 20th century and other factors).
The 1950s introduces large numbers of Western males into the equation and the 50s values of binary logic (the Cold War), science, exploitation of nature, the beginnings of civil libertarianism, capitalism, the family, a lessening of women's rights and stronger Christianity (Christianity peaks in the US in the 1950s). In the 1950s Western immortals begin to become the majority of babies. (The population increase graph begins to interact with the "cut in" point set by the small timeframe for advanced longevity treatment implementation practice, i.e. the steady increase in average lifespan is then uncapped by the events following 2010 very rapidly.)
The 1960s saw the emergence of the first generation of Western immortals who are unlikely to see widespread death within their generational companions, only ageing. Along with the traditional influences of strife, liberty, experimentation, social justice and youth the 1960s marks the emergence of Third World immortals, who become the majority (although it is worth bearing in mind that caucasians - not Westerners, to be sure, since Japan is more Western than South America/mesoamerica in general - but nonetheless, those of European and middle eastern descent, total 2 in 7 people worldwide currently, with 2 in 7 Asian and 2 in 7 Indian and 1 in 7 African).
The 1970s to 2000 sees the emergence of generations subject to fluctuating expectations about automation and immortality. Third World immortals are large in number. Many older immortals retire in this period and are sceptical about their prospects of immortality. Younger persons are more used to advances in computing, and knowledge of nanotechnology permeates mainstream society from 1990 on.
The generation born from 2000 to 2010 experiences amazing advances in science and medical technology, and the end of disease. They are born in the expectation of the Singularity's most rapid phase.
2010 to 2019. This generation, after 2015 in particular, is used to its parents being young. They have no expectation of ageing beyond maturity or having to die. In the Third World, increased affluence due to pre-assembler nanotechnology and the general Singularity and birth control as well as perceptions of immortality lead to a reduced birth rate, although this is offset by women being able to have children at any stage. In this period political power is shared between the 1950s generation (who would have earlier expected to retire at this stage) and the 1960s generation. Wild swings in public perception and debate occur as cultural templates as old as humanity and ones set up during the last three centuries (when Western society began to have large numbers of physically aged persons) are abandoned and others emphasized with new vividness. The expectation of true immortality from assembler technology and artificial and enhanced intelligence sets in.
I note that if a certain number of people end up living forever, then they are actually and objectively immortal now but do not yet recognize it. Because longevity techniques are acquired over a number of years and can take various forms, immortality can be conceived as a streaming process.
The above ramblings - generated over an afternoon - almost certainly contain some statistical errors but remain roughly correct. They do not address the issue of augmentation versus uploading which is possible some stage (I think sooner) after 2020.
Towards Ascension
Avatar Polymorph
34 After Armstrong
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