Re: Extropian Investing

James Rogers (
Wed, 05 Nov 1997 21:34:17 -0800

At 10:16 PM 10/30/97 -0500, Brian L. Fritz wrote:
>> 1) Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT - 29-5/8 per share): Excellent
>> investment, both short-term and long-term. Expect at least 40% growth in
>> the next 12 months. The stock price dropped sharply recently because they
>> said they expect earnings to be less than predicted for a couple quarters.
>> Wall Street, as usual, overlooked the fact that they are still returning a
>> very good EPS and are continuing to grow rapidly. Unnoticed for years,
>> this gallium-arsenide semiconductor manufacturer (no significant
>> competitors!) has entered a boom as demand for efficient wireless
>> communications and high-frequency circuits grows.
>I read in Popular Science (Nov. '97) that IBM is developing a silicon
>germanium semiconductor technology that can be manufactured at existing
>facilities. Does this new chip technology represent a threat to
>gallium-arsenide manufacturers in the near future?

Yes and no. Silicon-germanium technology does fill in the mid-range
semiconductor spectrum between gallium arsenide and silicon. However,
gallium arsenide still offers advantages in areas such as energy efficiency
and in ultra-high performance. As for the effect on TriQuint's business
(an impact that will take at least a year to materialize), it will be on
the low-end of their market segment, where they have been competing against
silicon for many years. They will most likely remain competitive in the
high-end arena, which is where they make most of their money anyway. Note
that in addition to ASIC and general purpose gallium arsenide fabrication,
a significant part of their business is also in high-performance
communication semiconductor design. They have significant experience in
developing gigabit datacomm switches (up to 20 Gbits/sec off-the-shelf) for
fiber and high-speed wire applications.

-James Rogers