Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>This is my problem with using money futures markets. I believe that Bush
>and Gore are much closer than this market would predict. I believe that
>statistically, people with money to invest are more likely to be Bush
>supporters, and that this skews the results. I therefore see these types of
>futures markets as an opinion poll of the wealthy, but not a good indicator
>of future events. I even find them less useful in predicting actual
>technical issues.
>
>I would accept the premise that people with more money might be better
>judges of business issues, but I don't see why available investment capital
>should be assumed to be proportional with intelligence of technological
>savvy.
You might want to revise your views in light of *data* we have on
how previous markets have done. They have consistently done better
than opinion polls and do not show a bias toward conservative candidates.
See: http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/references.html
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Mon May 28 2001 - 09:50:20 MDT