RE: Comments on elections

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Tue Nov 07 2000 - 13:04:17 MST

Harvey Newstrom wrote:
>This is my problem with using money futures markets. I believe that Bush
>and Gore are much closer than this market would predict. I believe that
>statistically, people with money to invest are more likely to be Bush
>supporters, and that this skews the results. I therefore see these types of
>futures markets as an opinion poll of the wealthy, but not a good indicator
>of future events. I even find them less useful in predicting actual
>technical issues.
>I would accept the premise that people with more money might be better
>judges of business issues, but I don't see why available investment capital
>should be assumed to be proportional with intelligence of technological

You might want to revise your views in light of *data* we have on
how previous markets have done. They have consistently done better
than opinion polls and do not show a bias toward conservative candidates.

Robin Hanson
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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