Re: Financial singularity

Date: Thu Oct 05 2000 - 17:36:15 MDT

>> Eugene Leitl wrote:
>> > >They seem to be utterly ignoring their models as offering any
>> > >real insight into the possibility that economic output could
>> > >rise to unheard of levels in the next few decades. After all
>> > >the charts and equations pointing

>> >You know, there's no magic in equations, forcing reality to fit
>> >the plotted curve forever. Sooner or later the physical system
>> >passes out of the regime where the equation did fit, and then you
>> >have to invent another, better describing the total
>> >behaviour. Surely the moment, where reality starts deviating from
>> >one model is noteworthy, but then, it happens all the time.

Robin Wrote:
>> Yes, of course, but the bizzare thing that Hal points out is that
>> they don't even consider the possibility that today might not be
>> the exact time when the their model stops being valid. It is as if
>> Moore has found his law, and then concluded that it must be just
>> about to stop.

Yes, Robin, I like that image.

Another aspect of the bizarre here is the belief that "Sooner or later
the phyxical system [will pass] out of the regime where the equation
fit". Yes, it's true that it's common for "reality [to] deviate from
the model", but the better job you've done of showing that some
equation fits the real world, the less reason you have for believing
you've found a phenomenon that should be expected to expire. A lot of
people use "there's a first time for everything" as if it means
everything will eventually happen, rather than that everything that
actually does happen has a first occurence.

The moment when you've found a new consistency to the universe is not
the time to start predicting that things will be different in the
future. Exceptions to old consistencies might reasonably drive people
to look for explanations: either the old rule wasn't general enough or
things have changed. But a newly noticed consistency is something to
take advantage of, not something you should expect to be violated now
that you've noticed it.


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