Re: Financial singularity

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Wed Oct 04 2000 - 06:51:16 MDT

Eugene Leitl wrote:
> > The seem to be utterly ignoring their models as offering any real insight
> > into the possibility that economic output could rise to unheard of levels
> > in the next few decades. After all the charts and equations pointing
>You know, there's no magic in equations, forcing reality to fit the
>plotted curve forever. Sooner or later the physical system passes out
>of the regime where the equation did fit, and then you have to invent
>another, better describing the total behaviour. Surely the moment,
>where reality starts deviating from one model is noteworthy, but then,
>it happens all the time.

Yes, of course, but the bizzare thing that Hal points out is that
they don't even consider the possibility that today might not be the exact
time when the their model stops being valid. It is as if Moore has found
his law, and then concluded that it must be just about to stop.

Robin Hanson
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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