Re: Goo prophylaxis

Hal Finney (
Tue, 2 Sep 1997 18:19:38 -0700

Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
> Eric Watt Forste wrote:
> > The best we could
> > do right now, probably, is to open a claim on the Foresight Exchange,
> > something like "Homo sapiens will be biologically extinct (no more
> > phenotypes from unmodified Homo sap genomes) by 2050." and see what
> > odds the market puts on that claim.
> Whoa! Explain to me why any sane being would make that bet?
> That's like the claim: "There will be a Singularity before 2200." Even I
> would take the negative of that one; if you're right, you won't be around for
> the payoff.

It is possible that biological extinction could occur while still
allowing the FX game to continue. People might all choose to upload
(or get involuntarily uploaded), while still retaining their identity and

Of course, it could be that any technology which allows uploading
will be so sophisticated that no one would play the FX game any more.
We really can't anticipate very well what the interests of uploaded
humans will be, but it certainly seems possible that they would continue
to enjoy making guesses about the future.