Re: Data & Predictions (was: "The Fourth Turning" - A Must Read)

Hal Finney (
Sun, 9 Mar 1997 10:59:51 -0800

It might be interesting to look at some quantitative data to see how well
it matches the cycles predicted in TFT. I was thinking of public opinion
polls where people are asked questions like whether they believe in God,
or whether they generally feel optimistic about the nation's prospects.
You could graph the percent who answer yes and see if it has a cyclic
structure which is consistent with the predictions.

Are there any such surveys which go back far enough? I believe (thanks
to Robin's correction) that we are supposed to be replaying the WWI
through 1920's era now. So if we had data which went back to 1900 it
would provide at least some overlap between cycles.