Re: AGING: perhaps we are over the hump

From: Randy Smith (
Date: Sun Feb 17 2002 - 16:15:54 MST

On Sun, 17 Feb 2002 12:11:58 -0800 (PST), you wrote:

>--- "Robert J. Bradbury" <> wrote:
>> As many I'm sure know, I've devoted a lot of time to
>> considering what
>> our hazard function(s) really are and how one might
>> push them lower.
>> For example, the general trend in the U.S. accident
>> rates, if continued
>> for this century, pushes expected longevity from
>> ~2000 to ~6000 years.
>> But getting it to tens of thousands of years as was
>> mentioned in the Spike
>> seems *really* difficult.
>A quick thought.
>Below is a list of the top ten causes of accidental
>death. Now ask yourself how many of these can be
>eliminated by technological means? Specifically,
>ubiquitous smart surveillance, ubiquitous smart
>objects, and ubiquitous communication and cooperation
>between/among these, seem to substantially reduce
>(eliminate?) these problems. Accidental death is
>almost entirely the result of "operator error" ie
>human screwup. With "AI Bodyguard" (TM) watching over
>you to keep you safe, what other risks remain than
>deliberate human violence and sudden unanticipated
>natural disaster?
>1. Motor vehicle crashes Deaths per year: 43,200
>2. Falls Deaths per year: 14,900
>3. Poisoning by solids and liquids D/year: 8,600
>4. Drowning Deaths per year: 4,000
>5. Fires and burns Deaths per year: 3,700
>6. Suffocation Deaths per year: 3,300
>7. Firearms Deaths per year: 1,500
>8. Poisoning by gases Deaths per year: 700
>9. Medical & Surgical Complications and Misadventures
>Deaths per year: 500
>10. Machinery Deaths per year: 350

Many of these causes are occupational, and would no longer exist in
the future we are discussing.

The rest of the causes are mainly attributable to a combination of a
young hormone-laden body, and a young brain, green in judgement. This
combination, also, would no longer exist in the future we discuss.
Sorry, but I don't see 200 yo quasi-immortals getting drunk and
gettting in a car wreck.

This also pretty much blows the much-tossed-about statistic wherein
future immortals would only live to ~ 1650 yrs, which is based on
current statistics.

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