Re: I made a bet!

From: cryofan (
Date: Wed Jan 16 2002 - 06:13:24 MST

On Wed, 16 Jan 2002 05:40:43 -0600, you wrote:

>On Tue, 15 Jan 2002 23:26:10 -0900, you wrote:
>>Tonight in chat I talked about nanotechnology with my very special ladyfriend. The conversation got started when she said replicators(in the Star Trek form) would not be around within our lifetime. I explained how with nanotech we would see home models within twenty to thirty years at the latest. She had a real "see it to believe it" attitude! lol I am going to have to get her reading Drexler's stuff!
>>We made a bet that if nano-replicators are in homes by 2030, she will have to treat me to dinner at a nice restaurant! And if not, than I'm the one footing the bill!
>>Julie will be 57 by the year 2030, and I will ancient, too!! I hope we're not too decrepit by the time 2030 gets here. :)
>I have a prediction--you will pay in 2030.
>Man, that's only 28 years from now!
> Think about how different the world was 28 years ago: actually, it
>was pretty much the same...the year was 1974.
>Transportation was pretty much the same. Except cars get more gas per
>mile, and are more powerful and efficient.
>Medicine was pretty much the same--people died of cancer and heart
>disease at pretty much the same rates. Older people were generally
>more lucid, however, probably due to the fact that there were fewer
>mind fogging drugs for them to take--although they do generally live a
>bit longer, I have noticed....but not all that much longer
>The world is definitely more polluted. The beaches in Texas are an
>absolute mess compared to what they were 28 years ago....The Gulf of
>Mexico is now your basic latrine...oh well, someone will no doubt drag
>out the old cliche that the Potomac is less polluted today (geez, try
>thinking for yourself ocassionally; maybe that's b/c all the industry
>is gone from the northeast...)
>Yes, there are some substantial advances, especially in electronics
>and chemistry...and other INCREMENTAL engineering advances.

The Internet and computers are by far the biggest difference
technologically between now and 1974, and actually, personal computers
were just about to bust out even then.

Then Internet was around then also, in a primitive form (oh boy, here
come the trivia geeks....).

But I digress.... maybe the biggest change is the potential for social
and political change that the Internet brings to us.

It has the potential to be a huge factor in political reform, although
it has definitely not lived up to its potential; however, the
potential is there for it to literally transform the USA by
augmenting/bootstrapping grassroots political activism.

 Also, the Internet has the potential to radically affect the
percentage of the population affected/brainwashed by religion memes.
There is now widely available to the public facts that show how
Christianity/Jesus Christ is an obvious descendant of earlier
religions; thus the Net has the potential for debunking forever the
minds of young people. What effect this will have on society 30 years
or so down the road, time will only tell...

There was a bit of this potential for social/political change that
came with the advent of the citizens band (CB) radio in the 1970s.
One ossified old columnist in the Houston Chronicle even claimed that
the Internet was nothing more than a revamped CB radio...he's wrong.
That is like comparing a horse and cart with a 747. They need to put
Leon Hale out to pasture....

Oh, one more change between now and 1974---we don't go to the moon
anymore....I guess that is a good thing....well, maybe was a
bi research experditure, thereby producing much serendipitous Good

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