Re: I made a bet!

From: cryofan (
Date: Wed Jan 16 2002 - 04:40:43 MST

On Tue, 15 Jan 2002 23:26:10 -0900, you wrote:

>Tonight in chat I talked about nanotechnology with my very special ladyfriend. The conversation got started when she said replicators(in the Star Trek form) would not be around within our lifetime. I explained how with nanotech we would see home models within twenty to thirty years at the latest. She had a real "see it to believe it" attitude! lol I am going to have to get her reading Drexler's stuff!
>We made a bet that if nano-replicators are in homes by 2030, she will have to treat me to dinner at a nice restaurant! And if not, than I'm the one footing the bill!
>Julie will be 57 by the year 2030, and I will ancient, too!! I hope we're not too decrepit by the time 2030 gets here. :)

I have a prediction--you will pay in 2030.

Man, that's only 28 years from now!

 Think about how different the world was 28 years ago: actually, it
was pretty much the same...the year was 1974.

Transportation was pretty much the same. Except cars get more gas per
mile, and are more powerful and efficient.

Medicine was pretty much the same--people died of cancer and heart
disease at pretty much the same rates. Older people were generally
more lucid, however, probably due to the fact that there were fewer
mind fogging drugs for them to take--although they do generally live a
bit longer, I have noticed....but not all that much longer

The world is definitely more polluted. The beaches in Texas are an
absolute mess compared to what they were 28 years ago....The Gulf of
Mexico is now your basic latrine...oh well, someone will no doubt drag
out the old cliche that the Potomac is less polluted today (geez, try
thinking for yourself ocassionally; maybe that's b/c all the industry
is gone from the northeast...)

Yes, there are some substantial advances, especially in electronics
and chemistry...and other INCREMENTAL engineering advances.

The biggest change between now and 1974 is that there are a lot more
people here in the USA, the better to turn our lakes and rivers into
latrines.....and that might help bring nanotech closer if only a bunch
of those people were working research scientists. But they aint,
John...most of these new people are busboys and janitors, and guess
what--they don't know squat about nanotech!

Nanotech will probably get here. But the date will be a helluva lot
closer to 280 years than to 28 years. And you will be DEAD by
then---and not frozen-dead, either---dead-dead...cuz you aint signed
up for cryonics, are you? Well, you better get signed up, bud....

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