Re: Ye olde Moore's Law paper

From: Eugene Leitl (
Date: Sat Jan 12 2002 - 03:30:06 MST

On Sat, 12 Jan 2002, Damien Broderick wrote:

> At a conference in Kyoto, Japan, Intel displayed transistors, or
> circuits, only 70 to 80 atoms wide. This nanometer (a nanometer being
> one-billionth of a meter) technology should lead to low-power chips
> containing 1 billion transistors running at speeds of 20 GHz. (Today's
> fastest Pentium 4 models have 42 million transistors and run at 1.7
> GHz.)

Well, we have transistors which switch at ~3 THz, and will be up to 6 THz
shortly. Given defect rate and clock skew problem, this indicates we might
be getting large scale cellular architectures after all.

> An eyeballing of Moore's graph seems to imply that we'd be at a trillion
> [2^40] by now (but my eyes aren't too good).

It's not about the transistors, it's about performance. And benchmarks
don't hold with Moore's law. Need repeating.

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