Re: What's in store for 2008?

Date: Fri Jan 19 2001 - 14:01:55 MST wrote:

> Outside of Moore's law, are there any theories that cover how much time it
> takes for a technology to leave the laboratory and successfully enter the
> marketplace?

Moore predicts the scaling of an existing techology (semiconductor photolitho)
solely. We're supposed to see the end of that by when? 2012? 2014? I forgot.
In any case, if you're doing the surface and scale like n*2 (volume scales as n^3,
but you can't do volume with photolitho), it doesn't make too much temporal
difference, whether your structures are 10 nm or 3 nm sized.

When we shift to nano, we'll see a discontinuity on the graph (unless the advent
of nano is very very carefully timed, which is extremely unlikely, due to jitter
uncertainty even if you plan accordingly, which we don't do due to short planning
horizont of the marketplace).

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