Re: What's in store for 2008?

Date: Fri Jan 19 2001 - 11:05:55 MST

"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" wrote:

> Incidentally, 2008 is (also) my best-guess point for when nanotechnology
> starts dumping nanocomputers into AI or chaos into the world geopolitical
> system.

I do not see *practical* molecular memories by 2008. Maybe by 2015, with
a very high degree of uncertainty. And these will be conventional
complementary-surface driven self-assembly strictly. The machine-phase
mechanosynthetic autoreplicator (if the darn thing is at all feasible)
has a very high bootstrap threshold, and right now only very few people
are actively pursuing that dream.

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