From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Sat Jun 07 2003 - 09:58:41 MDT
--- Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu> wrote:
> The special events will be chosen near to the last
> minute, but they might well include assassination.
Fascinating. Have you researched the legal
ramifications of such futures contracts? They might be
illegal under domestic or international law. Some
might say such contracts are akin to the kind that a
mafia boss puts put out on an enemy's head.
I am most interested however in how such a contract
would be valued. Normally, as you know, the buyer of a
futures contract is buying the right to take delivery
of the underlying commodity at the price speficied in
the contract. It is for this reason only that the
price of the futures contract is correlated to the
cash price of the underlying commodity.
If I bought a futures contract on the assassination of
Arafat by the first quarter of '04, like the one in
your example, then what commodity would I be buying
the right to take delivery of? Would I be buying the
right to take delivery of Arafat's head on a platter?
:-)
I'm sorry I don't mean to be sarcastic, but this is a
very unusual and potentially controversial idea you
have here. You will surely make the front page of the
Wall Street Journal on the day your exchange first
opens a futures contract on the assassination of a
world political figure.
-gts
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