From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Fri Jun 06 2003 - 10:31:52 MDT
On 6/6/2003, gts wrote:
> > Idea Futures "Markets in the Future of the MidEast" will be open to
> > the public for real money trading October 1, 2003:
> > www.PolicyAnalysisMarket.org I've been working for several years to
> > make this possible..
>
>Interesting concept. How are these futures to be evaluated fundamentally?
As the web page says, the Economist Intelligence Unit has agree to define
and judge these data series. They will give lots of details of how they do
it, and will give a set of past values for each one for references.
>I was looking at the graphic on the website and saw what appears to be the
>hypothetical price for a hypothetical security of a type called "Special
>Event Securities." The security that caught my attention was called "Arafat
>Assassinated 1st 04."
>Are you proposing that people can and will trade futures contracts on the
>prospects of an assassination in the Middle East? Am I reading that right??
The special events will be chosen near to the last minute, but they might
well include assassination.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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