From: Brett Paatsch (email@example.com)
Date: Sun Jun 15 2003 - 15:21:47 MDT
I haven't been following all of this thread but I'd be interested to hear
what you point view on Warren Buffet would be.
According to a book "The Essays of Waren Buffet: Lessons for Investors and
Managers" by Lawrence Cunningham. Over 45 years Warren Buffet compounded the
$10,000 he saved through school and college into a holding in Berkshire
Hathaway worth approximately one million times his original capital.
I can appreciate that like lotto winner (someone will win or outperform by
chance alone) and human nature being what it is many will be inclined to
think that somethink other than luck played a part but do you really think
the Warren Buffet's success is a mere statistical phenomenom. It could have
been anyone and just happened to be him?
Is this you contention? In fairness it would seem that the bias against the
view that such strategies could exist might appeal to one that has not
stumbled across a particular strategy as well. So I guess the fair question
in what way are the alternate hypothesis falsifiable? How could you rule out
all strategies rather than merely those that you may have tried?
Aside: I am often mildly amused at the statements of people who by bizzare
acident find themselves
sitting up in hospitals describing themselves as very lucky because they
narrowly avoided a still worst fate. Given that lightening has struck one, I
guess one is lucky not to die. But how many people got struck by lightening
on that particular day. The doctors usually chime, in cheerfully, that the
patient is in satisfactory condition. I guess some people have lower
thresholds of being lucky and in a satisfactory conditon than I do.
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