From: gts (gts_2000@yahoo.com)
Date: Sun Jun 15 2003 - 13:20:22 MDT
Olga Bourlin wrote:
> Don't know what's up with you gts. It doesn't seem to matter when I
> tell you that there are reliable techniques...
There are a million people just like you, Olga, who believe there are
"reliable techniques" for trading the market. I was once one of them. To be
very frank about it, and I don't mean to be rude, but I'm quite sure that
I've forgotten more about stock trading than you ever knew.
Unfortunately in every case when such techniques have been subjected to
rigorous statistical analysis, they have failed the test. This does mean
that some people have not made money with such techniques. You may be one of
those who has. It means only that people have no more chance of
outperforming the market in the future with the techniques than those who
don't use the techniques.
I know it's difficult to understand and believe... trust me I spent a big
chunk of my life as an investment professional who believed and promulgated
the same religion that you hold dear. I stubbornly banged my head for nearly
12 years against the truth before it finally sunk in.
Fortunately the market does go up over time with the growth of the world
economy, so any trading strategy that keeps you long more than short, and in
more than out, is going to make money over time. However this fact also
helps to perpetuate the myth that market skill exists. If you don't
understand statistics, and if you don't understand such concepts as
opportunity cost, then you will tend to see your profits as evidence of
trading skill.
-gts
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