RE: ENERGY: Singularity on hold?

From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Fri Jun 13 2003 - 21:36:45 MDT

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    On Fri, 13 Jun 2003, Spike wrote:

    > A few windmills are going up along 5 now (low interest rates making them
    > attractive investments) but progress is being strangled by low oil
    > prices.

    Spike, I understand (and completely support wind power). *But*
    as I tried to point out in my response to Anders my car doesn't
    "run" on electricity! Nor my home.

    > This world cannot make any real progress in energy production until we
    > burn up most of the reserves. Cheapy oil is holding back progress.

    Granted -- because we have had ~100 years to develop the infrastructure
    that depends on oil and gas. So everything that is involved is inexpensive
    at this time. But there is no (significant) infrastructure to produce
    fuel cells that consume hydrogen. There are no pipelines to move
    hydrogen around the country. There are power lines to move electricity
    around but you, I think, would be one of the first to recognize
    that even that system can break down when prices spike.
    [I seem to remember a situation a year or two ago... but I digress...]

    The questions I'm trying to raise are not whether things will
    eventually work out (I point out the U.S. efforts with respect
    to coal) -- the question I'm trying to focus on is "How much do
    we get set back if we hit the wall hard?"

    Give me an estimate of how many years you think it would take to
    replace every gasoline fueled vehicle in the country with a battery
    powered electrical vehicle? And then estimate the hit to the economy
    while that process takes place and everyone is spending time and money
    fueling their obsolete vehicles in a situation that may resemble the
    oil shortages during the '70s.

    Spike -- I'd suggest you might be riding your motorcycle a bit less
    when fuel for it costs $10.00/gallon...

    Robert



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