From: Amara Graps (amara@amara.com)
Date: Tue Feb 18 2003 - 09:16:24 MST
(trying again.. I think I had some non-ASCII characters in the previous
version)
Their model (below) probably needs a fair bit of tweaking, and it will
be really interesting to hear (I hope that the results are publicized)
about the results after this first year of diffusion.
Here is one conference I see from Google scheduled on this topic
International workshop on Euro diffusion
Cercedilla, April 28-30, 2003
http://matematicas.montes.upm.es/eurodif/workshop.html
The Euro Diffusion Problem
http://www.wiskgenoot.nl/swi/swi2002euro.html
From paper:
http://www.cs.vu.nl/~koole/articles/swi02/swi02.pdf
"1 Introduction
On January 1, 2002 a total of 12 European countries replaced their
national currencies with the Euro. These coins are not identical,
one side of each of the 8 denominations of coins differs from country
to country, and as people travel these coins mix. The national banks
have decided that no redistribution will take place, and therefore it
is expected that in the long run a close to perfect mixture of coins
will take place. During the study week we analysed this problem and
came up with a suitable mathematical model for the movement of coins
that enabled us to estimate the speed at which this process will
occur. This speed strongly depends on the value of certain parameters
that are, less than two months after in the introduction of the Euro,
hard to estimate and for this reason we have to be careful with
conclusions.
However we estimate that it will take around 12 months before roughly
half of all coins in Dutch wallets will be foreign.
Our other main conclusions are:
* Markov chains are the obvious models to model the movement of euro
coins,
* Continuous models are the natural approximation of these,
* The data on the Euro Diusion web site are unreliable and must be
used for parameter estimations only with care,"
-- *********************************************************************** Amara Graps, PhD email: amara@amara.com Computational Physics vita: ftp://ftp.amara.com/pub/resume.txt Multiplex Answers URL: http://www.amara.com/ *********************************************************************** "Treat people as if they are what they ought to be, and you will help them become what they are capable of being. --Ashleigh Brilliant
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