>> I know the laws of probability are real not because I BELIEVE >> in it but because I CAN PROVE IT.
You're being very sloppy with your language and your thinking here.
PROOF, as in absolute inviolable certainty, is irrelevant to reality.
I can't PROVE the laws of probability, but that doesn't mean I have
to have faith in them to make use of them. There _is_ a useful middle
ground--committment. I have committed thousands of dollars over the
years to my mastery of the laws of probability, and given the
opportunity I will do so again, _until something better comes along_.
Your million-coin-flip bet is a cop out; you know it isn't physically
possible to test your theory within your lifetime, so you're safe. If
you had any balls, you'd offer a bet that's feasible. I offer this
one to any takers: flip an unmodified US dime 10 times. If it lands
head-up all 10 times, I'll give you $100, otherwise I'll keep the dime.
This in no way means I have unlimited unshakable faith in the laws
of probability. It just means I'm willing to bet $100 on them
(because I know that on average, I make 0.24 cents every time I take
This in no way means I have unlimited unshakable faith in the laws of probability. It just means I'm willing to bet $100 on them (because I know that on average, I make 0.24 cents every time I take this bet).
-- Lee Daniel Crocker <firstname.lastname@example.org> <http://www.piclab.com/lcrocker.html> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past, are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used or modified for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or notification."--LDC