Re: Clint & Robert on "Faith in Science"

Clint O'Dell (
Mon, 25 Oct 1999 11:44:51 MDT

Robert Owen wrote:
>So, Clint, why do you think that at some number
>of tosses the result OUGHT TO BE exactly 50% tails, 50% heads?
>Answer: because your BELIEVE in the "Laws of Probability". Can you
>prove this belief rationally justified even though one cannot >possibly
>design an experiment to test these laws (hypotheses) empirically?

Actualy this can be tested, and I have tested it before. And no the results do not have to be exactly 50% tails and 50% heads. There is a distinct difference between statistics and probability. Probability says what is more "likely" to happen. Statistics is what happens in an a pure logic world. Statistics is a tool in probability like a straight line is a tool in geometry. If I flip a coin x number of times, x being equal to or less than 10 then I won't get fifty percent of each. I may get something like 70% 30%. But If I increase x to less than or equal to 100 flips the percentage difference decreases. I may get something like 75% 25% or 80% 20%. If I increase x to 1000 flips I get, yet a smaller difference in percentage, something like 90% 10%. The larger x is, the smaller the difference. The point when the number of x is important depends on how accurate you want your information. Try It.

I know the laws of probability are real not because I BELIEVE in it but because I CAN PROVE IT.


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