Re: doubling time and singularity

From: Spike Jones (
Date: Sat Dec 01 2001 - 19:45:09 MST

> Spike wrote: >In any case, the doubling time is getting wonderfully
> short...
> Damien Broderick wrote: pp. 86-7 of THE SPIKE ...He
> predicted a nearly 80% chance of finding a three million digit prime by
> November 2001... jumped right past 3 million
> and went to 4 million digits.

Ja. 4,053,946 digits. I underestimated the effect of the P4. {8-[

> The claim in the book is that a log plot of
> largest primes against time `shows a remarkably straight line heading for
> the three million digit prime and beyond' (p. 87). But maybe it's even
> faster than exponential now. Spike? Damien Broderick

It is. I curse my own cowardice in extrapolating computer
power into the future. But I have an updated model that
is more accurate in taking such factors into account, so
next time I shall not look so foolish.

Now of course, I *enjoy* looking foolish. But my probability
distribution function for the next record will be more accurate. spike

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