**Next message:**Adrian Tymes: "Re: SPACE: thinking seriously about space development"**Previous message:**G.P.: "Re: SPACE: thinking seriously about space development"**In reply to:**Anders Sandberg: "Re: new mersenne?"**Next in thread:**Terry Egan: "Re: new mersenne?"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

*> > > > Spike Jones wrote: and a neeeeewwwww Mersenne prime has been
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*> > > detected.
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*> >
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*> > On page 87 of The Spike, Damien Broderick speculates:
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*> >
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*> > "...we can estimate that there's nearly an 80 percent chance that
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*> > a three million digit prime will be discovered by November 2001."
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*>
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*> Anders Sandberg wrote: So we can safely say Spike is on schedule? What
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*> about your estimation
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*> of when it would be discovered, did it fit in perfectly or does it turn
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*> the fit?
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Good question Anders. I have been working over my models in

order to predict when the next record will be set. I have a

few observations to report, but it is unclear the extropian angle.

So if you do not like math or computers, please read no further.

Other than the fact that the new Mersenne prime detected yesterday

was a nearly 1.5 sigma long gap between primes, the event is not

far from my expectations. In Damien's book I calculated about an

80% chance by 11-01, but in fact I was a little cowardly in my

model of the increase in computer speed. Had I known in December

1999 that we would have covered this much ground in two years,

I would have calculated a 87.3% probability of a Mersenne in that

interval.

A complete report is being prepared for my website. This is

a short preliminary report:

I estimated the number of participants about right, and the

numbers of machines doing factoring and double checking

was predicted fairly accurately. The speed of computers

as a function of time I derived from Ideas Futures. I assumed

that those who traded in those memes knew what they

were doing, and they nailed it almost right on. But where I

really messed up was underestimating the impact of the

Pentium4. The P4 instruction set is twice as fast as a

similarly clocked P3 in doing the FFTs used in the Lucas-

Lehmer algorithm. So I blew that one. But I have a new

version of the model that takes these developments into account.

I am currently tuning my model using new information on the

speed of processors and a really cool Matlab tool Ive been

experimenting with, a homebrew Butterworth filter thingy. But

preliminary estimates indicate that mersenne prime number 40

has about a 50% chance of being discovered by November 02.

If discovered earlier, the word "by" means the start of November.

If discovered later, the word "by" means the end of November. {8^D

I expect to sharpen this prediction in the next few weeks, so

stay tuned. In the mean time, if you want to join GIMPS, there

is an extropians team. For some time we were running neck

and neck with the Meeeeensa team. Go to the link below and

follow the instructions. The password to join is maxmore.

http://www.mersenne.org/prime.htm

spike

**Next message:**Adrian Tymes: "Re: SPACE: thinking seriously about space development"**Previous message:**G.P.: "Re: SPACE: thinking seriously about space development"**In reply to:**Anders Sandberg: "Re: new mersenne?"**Next in thread:**Terry Egan: "Re: new mersenne?"**Messages sorted by:**[ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ]

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