I finally did some formal economic analysis of the implications of machine intelligence (uploads or AIs) for economic growth, wages, and population. The analysis confirms and illuminates simple intuitions.
Economic Growth Assuming Machine Intelligence
http://hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf , .ps
by Robin Hanson
A simple neo-classical growth model examines the implications of machine intelligence, machines which could substitute for, rather than complement, human labor. Steady state growth rates could easily rise by an order of magnitude or more. But with steady growth, wages and per-intelligence consumption could fall as fast as computer prices do.
Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614