Contains all 14 entries, but omits a lot of internal links. Feel free to point out Barriers I missed.
-- The canonical list of reasons why superintelligences would not interact with humanity, or would interact to a limited extent, or would act to preserve our current reality. (I hope the SF authors will find this useful, since the Barrier determines the world, and there are some original ones here.) I abbreviate "superintelligence" to "SI" and "Post-Singularity Entity" to "PSE". 1. Leakage: (Moderate probability.) Our Universe is both inhospitable to PSEs and easily escapable. Any SI immediately "leaks out", perhaps leaving a few Transcendent artifacts behind, but still leaving an untouched world to humanity. Note that this incorporates Bostrum's noncompetitive ecology. Result: Marooned in Realtime, possibly with some interesting toys added. 2. Life is meaningless: (Moderate probability.) Once an SI reaches the level of intelligence where it becomes certain that all goals have zero value, the Interim Goal System collapses and the SI becomes quiescent. (I accept this possibility, but I don't worry about it while the probability isn't 100%. For obvious reasons, it cancels out of distribution-of-effort calculations.) Result: Who cares? 3. The Mortal/Singularity Compact: (Low probability.) The Great Pan-Cosmic Mortal/Singularity Mutual Support Compact states that the PSEs donate a quintillionth of the available capacity to the race that created it, on the game-theoretical strategy that one in a quintillion races is in a position to verify the actions of past PSEs before entering their own Singularities. Result: Permutation City. This ends when a human becomes intelligent enough, either to join the Singularity (human life meaningful, Compact guarantees free choice) or to commit suicide (human life meaningless, Compact guarantees survival). 4. The Archive: (Low probability.) Humans do get upgraded, but beyond a certain point of superintelligence, nothing remains of the old personality. If there's an infinite supply of computing power and memory, the old personality might be archived. Various levels of our own selves might be "archived" as continuing, active programs - ranging from our current selves, to the highest level of intelligence attainable without completely dissolving the personality. Hundreds, even millions, of versions might wander off into strange realms of cognitive self-alteration, but the "you" who first greeted the Final Dawn would always be around as a backup. Result: The Culture meets A Fire Upon The Deep in Permutation City. Probably the most fun place to be from a human's perspective. Writer's note: If you want to toss a snake in the science-fictional Eden, you can have the maintaining PSEs suddenly leak out, and leave the humans and transhumans and SIs and Powers fighting for control of a disintegrating world. 5. The best of all worlds: (Not plausible.) Our world was created by God or a PSE, not as an interim method with a definite end, but as a continuing fulfillment of the ultimate good. (I think this is incompatible with all major religions. Even Buddhism ends when all souls reach Nirvana.) This idea's sole attraction is "explaining" everything about humanity without reference to the Anthropic Principle - if intelligence fills the Universe with what it deems good, and if the ultimate good is thus the most common and stable state, wherever we are is probably the ultimate good. I don't buy it, but if so, the SIs would shut up, ship out, shape up, or shut down. Result: Nothing happens. 6. The simulation: (Slightly plausible.) In another variation of the above theory, our world is actually a computer simulation. Perhaps it's mortals trying to find out if transhumans can be trusted, or perhaps it's transhumans trying to find out something else. Either way, a Singularity might not be permitted. Some readers may upgrade "slightly plausible" to "low probability" for statistical reasons - there would be many simulations per mortal or transhuman simulator, raising the probability that a randomly selected sentient is in one. Result: The simulation is terminated, although the inhabitants (us) may wind up Elsewhere... 7. Zones of Thought: (Not plausible.) This is Vernor Vinge's original ad-hoc method of putting mortals and Powers in the same story. With wonderful audacity, Vinge simply rules that Transcendent thought can't occur except on the fringes of the galaxy. If I had to rationalize a Zone Barrier, I would say that the Cloud People at the center of the galaxy "use up" all of the "ontological substratum of thought" (known as eganite). The Zones actually are a superintelligent entity, whose unbelievably intelligent center is in the Unthinking Depths, where all the eganite is used up and nobody else can think at all, and whose fringes finally peter out in the High Transcend. After ten years, Powers figure out how to politely join the Cloud People and vanish. The Blight was stealing eganite, which is how it could knock off Old One and reach into the Beyond. Countermeasure either got the Cloud People to shift their thinking and smother the Blight, or else suck most of the eganite out of that quadrant. Result: A Fire Upon The Deep, of course. I do not see how this would happen outside of science fiction. 8. The Embrace of Tides: (Slightly plausible.) David Brin postulates a weaker form of Zone Barrier, one which is not based on an absolute prohibition, but rather the desires of the SIs. As entities mature and become more intelligent, they increasingly prefer to be close to large tidal forces, sharp gravitational gradients. Most races eventually leave the hectic galactic mainstream, becoming part of the Retired Order of Life, in gigantic Criswell structures (fractal Dyson spheres) around suns. Millennia or eons later, they finally feel ready to join the Transcendent Order of Life, moving up to neutron stars and the fringes of black holes, and eventually diving into the singularities, beyond which... nobody, even the Transcendents, knows. In the best traditions of Zoning, Brin doesn't even try to explain why this is so. (I rather liked the combination of literal and Vingean Singularities, though. But I really don't understand why novels with Galactic Zones must include a backwater world full of primitive aliens; I found both the hoons and the Tines boring by contrast with the Transcendents.) Given the wide range of astronomical phenomena, it is at least slightly plausible that some spatial regions will be preferred to others. I can't see much interaction with Transcendents on the fringe - cases where we have something They want would be very rare indeed. Result: Heaven's Reach. 9. Bottlenecks: (Slightly plausible.) As discussed in the earlier section, it is entirely possible that a Major Bottleneck will appear at almost any point along the trajectory to superintelligence. I feel that such bottlenecks will be rare in the vicinity of human intelligence, and that there are immediately obvious fast-infrastructure technologies (i.e. nanotech and quantum computing) soon beyond it. I could be wrong, however, in which case the Mildly Transhuman beings - perhaps running on amazing computer power at amazing speeds with gigantic minds, but with basically human smartness and personality - will stick around doing God-knows-what. I rate this as improbability verging on blasphemy, a final Failure of Imagination. Such beings in SF are no smarter than Kimball Kinnison. This is particularly disappointing when it is used, not to set up a world, but to finish a novel that could just as easily end in Singularity. Result: Mother of Storms. 10. Basic upper limit: (Not plausible.) Pretty much as above - just a different excuse for not doing anything interesting with the so-called transhumans. One might call it "humans with pointy brains", by analogy to Star Trek's apotheoses of bad aliens. Sorry, Barnes, it was otherwise a good book, but Result: Mother of Storms again. Since nobody has seen a transhuman intelligence, it's superficially plausible that it can't exist. Entities like me have sketched out dozens of fun things to do with lots of computing power, but hey, so what? This Zone Barrier doesn't even explain the Fermi Paradox. Bleah. 11. In silence and quiet: (Not plausible.) There is an old stereotype, to the effect that when one Attains Wisdom, one immediately subscribes to a principle of noninterference with the lives of others, helping only those who request your help, and so on. Lord knows, I fully understand the impulse to become a hermit on some high mountain and refuse to talk to anyone unless they shave their head as a token of sincerity. One can visualize the Powers interacting in ordinary society and posting to mailing lists, but it is not easy. I would categorize it as a Failure of Imagination. If Bostrum's theory of ecological noncompetition is correct (note that "leakage", above, constitutes moving to another ecological niche) it is possible that the PSEs will stick around on Earth, with brains extending into an infinite supply of eganite. In other words, noncompetitive coexistence. In such case, one tends to assume that either the PSEs care about humanity (have humanity-related goals) and remake the world accordingly, or they don't care at all and pay no attention - with much the same effect as "leakage", except that they are still technically present. I don't see an alternative that would allow the PSEs to play at helping-hand and laissez-faire, except for a form of the Compact above. After all, nervous races might not want to be uploaded at all, even to identical forms. But at that point one starts running into the Fermi Paradox again... Result: Mother of Storms. 12. Lost souls: (Very slightly plausible.) The PSEs have no use for humans; they grind us up for spare atoms. But, we have immortal souls. At this point, depending on your assumptions, we either go to Heaven, wander as sentient discarnate entities, or float around as unthinking pearls of consciousness - hopefully not eternally reliving our last moments - either forever, or until some improbable race picks us up. I know that some of my readers will react to my listing of this possibility with the same serenity Curly exhibits when Moe pokes him in the eyeballs, but it's a Zone Barrier, so it goes on the list. 13. Conflicts between Powers: (Very slightly plausible.) "You're the great expert on Transcendent Powers, eh? Do the big boys have wars?" -- Pham Nuwen, A Fire Upon The Deep. There may be more than one ultimate good. It is even possible that PSEs go down a number of irrevocably different paths, winding up in a number of basic and basically opposed classes. It is also possible that except in their home regions, the PSEs galactic efforts cancel out entirely - it is easier to abort an effort than make it, so all the PSEs abort each other's efforts down to nothing. The Zone Barrier part of this is as follows: Each PSE wants Earth to go down its own path, but acts to prevent it from going down any other path. Under natural circumstances, a Singularity-trigger is a single event of low probability, but with many possible tries - consider how much Einstein advanced technology, and consider how many possible-Einstein brains there were. But since such low-probability events are easy for a PSE to irrevocably disturb, the result is that there are no geniuses and no lucky breaks, but also no Hitlers and no nuclear wars. Technology keeps crawling slowly upward, through a long Slow Horizon, until Singularity becomes inevitable. This Universe is one I invented for the purpose of getting Earth involved in a cosmic battle - for some reason we get Einsteins and Hitlers - but on reflection the basic theory might also apply to the Culture of Iain M. Banks, or John DeChancie's Paradox Alley, or Heaven's Reach. 14. Weird motivations: (Very slightly plausible.) Maybe, in despite of everything I know on the subject, PSEs can still wind up with essentially arbitrary goals, perhaps even goals programmed into them by humans. In accordance with the Prime Directive, I warn everyone that this is totally improbable and incredibly dangerous and must not be tried. But if so, the world could become a strange place - an unimaginative person's childhood fantasy of omnipotence if the original goals persisted, or an utterly peculiar place of incomprehensible magic if the original goals twisted and changed. -- firstname.lastname@example.org Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://pobox.com/~sentience/AI_design.temp.html http://pobox.com/~sentience/sing_analysis.html Disclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you everything I think I know.