At 12:17 PM 7/16/98 -0700, Robin wrote:
>Are you saying, for example, that on average the forecasts I might make
>today about 2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor of
>mine might have made in 1898 about 2098?
I would surmise that on average the forecasts anyone might make today about 2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor might have made in 1798 about 1998. Perhaps *far less* accurate, if we really can expect a Vingean discontinuity in the intelligence that is brought to bear on problems somewhere around 2050 if not decades earlier.
I also suppose that we are better placed to be able to imagine such a Singularity than any ancestor in 1898, although Nikolay Aleksandrovich Berdyayev might have managed it (he was 24 at the time).