Re: The Singularity

Robin Hanson (
Thu, 16 Jul 1998 12:17:45 -0700

'gene writes:
> > So what exactly do you mean?
>Robin, I'm not sure I get your meaning, but I certainly agree with
>Dan's position. I'm not even sure Darwin still holds in the SI domain,
>I'm not certain of anything. I do not see how anyone who goes on two
>legs can sensibly speculate about that _hypothetic_ future entity/state
>... but just now this is entertainment. We need the pre-SI models to
>dynamically adjust our trajectories as we fall into the Singularity,
>... but we should not try to forecast too far too soon.

I don't know if I agree with Dan or you until I know what you mean. What is a "sensible" speculation?

Are you saying, for example, that on average the forecasts I might make today about 2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor of mine might have made in 1898 about 2098?

Robin Hanson RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884 140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-2627