Re: global warming and sea level rise

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Wed Jul 18 2001 - 07:41:17 MDT

More detail on that DICE-99 model implications. See these:
Here are their estimates of the present global value of various policies.

Doing nothing 0 (by definition)
Doing the optimal thing 198B$ (B$ = billion dollars)
Waiting 10yr, then do optimal thing 192B$
Limit global emissions to 1990 levels -3000B$
Limit C02 level to x2 pre-industrial -700B$
Limit delta-temp to 2.5C -2500B$
Geoengineering fixes, if easy +4000B$

Their model doesn't include the benefits of resolving
uncertainty about the model, which would favor waiting.
But the model also doesn't include high variance uncertainty,
which via risk-aversion might lean toward limiting change.

Robin Hanson
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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