FWD (SW) update on the Kursk

From: Terry W. Colvin (fortean1@frontiernet.net)
Date: Fri Aug 18 2000 - 23:12:12 MDT


-The US Navy had announced that it had registered two explosions the second much
greater than the first. This has now been confirmed by Norwegian Seismologists
who say there was one explosion at 0728 and 27 sec registering about 1.5 on the
Richter scale. The second at 0730 and 42 sec registering about 3.5 on the
Richter scale (equivalent to one to two tons of TNT explosive detonated
underwater)
-There where 10 senior naval officers on board as observers.
-There has been a lot of contact between NATO (and some NATO members
independently) and the Russians on this matter. There have even been two visits
from Russian representatives at NATO headquarters.
- 2/3 of the crew could have been killed by the explosion that sunk the sub
according to Jane's.
-The K-141 Kursk was one of the Russian subs with the best trained crews, and
was soon to be deployed in the Mediterranean as part of a carrier group. This
deployment is/was planned as a show of force, to remind the world that Russia is
still a world power. The major exercise in which the Kursk was taking part was a
prelude to this deployment. Interestingly this task force is to be led by the
Aircraft carrier Kuznetsov, which had to be towed back to port a few months ago,
while taking part in another such deployment.

Why did they wait?
-The hatches on the Kursk are compatible with the LR5 rescue submarine sent by
the British. And the Russians were very likely to know that from the beginning.
- The first estimates had said there should be enough air left until early
friday, why take risks? Knowing 48 hr at least were needed if everything went
well to get outside help.
-Why was the 'foreign' rescue mission not allowed to land and depart from the
military base, which was closest but had instead to take a longer route.

<specualation>
Putin is being heavily criticized at home for his apparent lack of interest in
the matter.
Russian military Top brass seem to be resisting foreign 'interference' and even
leaking 'rumors' of foreign responsibility in the accident with Defense minister
Sergeyev (ex-commander of strategic rocket forces (nuclear forces), and a noted
anti western) backing these stories (i.e. US sub 'ramming' the Kursk, reports of
another sub resting on the sea floor then secretly limping back to norway
etc...). If so, Putin is likely to have at least not resisted the military,
because he is a strong supporter of a 'strong' Russia. We may have seen some
political infighting, with some supporting foreign help and openness while
others, backed by the defense minister and the military preferring to keep the
lid on the accident and avoiding 'outsiders' meddling in their affairs. The
decision may have been to try and keep the lid on the whole story (the story was
only revealed 2 days later and not by the government or the military), and the
military would try it's own rescue.
Either they had to concede to a Wednesday deadline (+ 48hrs needed for foreign
help to arrive would coincide with the first estimates on amount of air left ,
which was early Friday)
Or they were forced into accepting foreign assistance because of the public
outrage.
In any case everyone seems to have lost in this affair, first and foremost the
sailors of the Kursk, of course. The military and government leaders (including
Putin) have now to endure the public outrage, because they have not done
everything that could be done to save the sailors, and on the international
front Russia will have lost face and prestige, because of having to rely on its
'enemy' for help. Ironically the image that NATO is still the great enemy that
they have themselves in a large part created for their political purposes, will
now work against them.
I just wonder if (or hope that) the Sailors, if any are still alive, and their
families know that even the 'enemy' thinks of them as men, and that our thoughts
go with them.
Timothy

-- 
Terry W. Colvin, Sierra Vista, Arizona (USA) < fortean1@frontiernet.net >
     Alternate: < terry_colvin@hotmail.com >
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