Human longevity: demographic trends for those over 80
Max More (maxmore@primenet.com)
Mon, 01 Jun 1998 17:25:07 -0700
11. AN ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRAJECTORIES OF HUMAN LONGEVITY
Human old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950,
and this evidence of extended post-reproductive survival is
apparently puzzling biodemographers. Vaupel et al (14 authors at
10 installations, DE US DK MX CN) review current questions and
results in this field, presenting data from various sources. The
reduction in death rates at older ages has increased the size of
the elderly population considerably. In developed countries in
1990 there were about twice as many nonagenarians and 4 to 5
times as many centenarians as there would have been if mortality
after age 80 had stayed at 1960 levels. Reliable data for various
developed countries indicate that the population of centenarians
has doubled every decade since 1960, mostly as a result of
increases in survival after age 80. Here are selected data for
people 60 years and older in 1997 and projections for 2025:
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1997 2025 percent of pop. in 2025
World 530 million 1200 million 15
Italy 13 18 33
Sweden 2 2.7 29
Germany 18 28 32
Japan 27 40 33
US 44 83 25
China 118 290 20
India 64 165 12
Mexico 6.5 18 13
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QY: James W. Vaupel (jwv@demogr.mpg.de)
<A HREF="mailto:jwv@demogr.mpg.de">EMAIL</A>
(Science 8 May 98 280:855) (Science-Week 29 May 98)