Re: Re:Plane crashes and other accidents
Scott Badger (wbadger@psyberlink.net)
Wed, 15 Apr 1998 17:59:24 -0500
>
> At 06:53 4/15/98 -0500, ChuckKuecker <ckuecker@mcs.net> wrote:
> >At 23:47 4/14/98 -0700, you wrote:
> >>As people's lifespans slowly but surely start to increase, the frequency
> >>of death from "unnatural causes" will also increase.
>
This doesn't make sense to me. Longer life spans would not increase the
_frequency_ of unnatural deaths. Let's say you would normally live 100
years and you are risk-aversive to the degree that you have a 1% chance of
dying an unnatural death over the length of your life-span. If you then
become able to live for 200 years and maintain that same level of
risk-aversiveness, then (all other things being equal) you will still have a
1% chance of dying an unnatural death. It's just that 1% of 100 is only
one-half of 1% of 200.
And if your life was extended indefinitely (to infinity), there would be a
1% probablity times infinity (equivalent to 100% probability) that you would
die of an unnatural cause eventually (even if you significantly reduced your
exposure to risk). Am I right people?
Scott Badger, Ph.D.