Message 58:
From: Max More <max@maxmore.com>
>>
>>1926-1999
>>
>>Large company stocks 10.7% per year
>>Small company stocks 12.6% per year
>>Long-term corporate bonds 5.6% per year
>>U.S treasury bills 3.7% per year
>It's worth adding that the return to U.S. stocks over the last 20
>years has been significantly higher than since 1926. I don't have
>the figure handy, but I believe it averages out to about 18% per
>year.
This is not all stocks, but relevant. (extropians should do no
worse than the S&P)
S&P averages (source www.vanguard.com)
1 YEAR 3 YEAR 5 YEAR 10 YEAR
17.94% 27.40% 26.76% 18.84
>The really interesting question is what can we expect for the next
>10-20 years? Warren Buffett has gone on record as saying that we
>should expect lower than average returns over the coming years. I
>suspect that he may turn out to be wrong, though it's tough
>standing up against an investor with such an excellent record
>(until recently). However, I really don't think he appreciates the
>transition our economy is going through. The Internet has barely
>begun to transform business. For a large collection of material on
>aspects of the New Economy, New Economy Commerce, New Economy
>Business Models, etc., take a look at those topic at
>www.manyworlds.com (a business technology site that I'm working on
>as a consultant with the owner--who is also an extropian).
I agree with Max. I'm a big fan of Mr Buffett's, but I too question
if he really understands where things are going. I do believe that
a fundamental change is going on which is why we're trying to
figure out the best method of investing.
I think it's an interesting question to ponder if there is enough
money in the hands of the "old Guard" to seriously effect the
outcome.
The Internet may prove to be the investing worlds equivalent of a
massive meteor strike. (i.e. extinction event)
Brian
Member:
Extropy Institute, www.extropy.org
Adler Planetarium www.adlerplanetarium.org
Life Extension Foundation, www.lef.org
National Rifle Association, www.nra.org, 1.800.672.3888
Mars Society, www.marssociety.org
Ameritech Data Center Chicago, IL, Local 134 I.B.E.W
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