I wrote:
>> > "Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality"
>> > Ronald D. Lee, Lawrence R. Carter
>> > Journal of the American Statistical Association,
>> > Vol. 87, No. 419. (Sep., 1992), pp. 659-671.
>>
>>That's 8 years ago. Has anybody checked the accuracy of
>>the predictions since?
>
>Probably but I don't know about it. You could
>probably do it yourself if you were willing to
>hunt around for age-specific total US death rates at
>http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss.htm .
Looking on Lee's web vita just now I found this entry:
(at http://arrow.qal.berkeley.edu:80/people/rlee/index.html)
Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller (2000) "Assessing the Performance
of the Lee-Carter Approach to Modeling and Forecasting
Mortality" paper presented at the pre-PAA Economic Demography
meetings in Los Angeles.
Alas this is all I have.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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