>>> > "Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality"
>>> > Ronald D. Lee, Lawrence R. Carter
>>> > Journal of the American Statistical Association,
>>> > Vol. 87, No. 419. (Sep., 1992), pp. 659-671.
>>>That's 8 years ago. Has anybody checked the accuracy of
>>>the predictions since?
>>Probably but I don't know about it. You could
>>probably do it yourself if you were willing to
>>hunt around for age-specific total US death rates at
>Looking on Lee's web vita just now I found this entry:
>Ronald Lee and Timothy Miller (2000) "Assessing the Performance
>of the Lee-Carter Approach to Modeling and Forecasting
>Mortality" paper presented at the pre-PAA Economic Demography
>meetings in Los Angeles.
>Alas this is all I have.
OK, there is this other one, which one should be able to look up.
Ronald Lee (2000) "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality,
with Various Extensions and Applications" North
American Actuarial Journal v.4, n.1 (January) pp.80-93.
Robin Hanson email@example.com http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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