Billy Brown wrote:
> Scenario 2 - Nanotech Doomsday
> Automated engineering is much easier than nanotech, and will thus be
> implemented substantially sooner.
> Scenario 3 - The Hard Takeoff to Singularity
> Automated engineering and nanotech are problems of similar difficulty, and
> will develop together.
I'd reverse the outcomes. Primitive nanotech results in destabilizing competition and wars fought with half-baked weapons (sc. 3). Instant omnipotent drextech lets the winner take over the world without much fuss and even evacuate the planet in case of emergency. Problem is, I think nanotech will start primitive.
-- firstname.lastname@example.org Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://pobox.com/~sentience/AI_design.temp.html http://pobox.com/~sentience/sing_analysis.html Disclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you everything I think I know.