Billy Brown wrote:
>
> Scenario 2 - Nanotech Doomsday
> Assumptions:
> Automated engineering is much easier than nanotech, and will thus be
> implemented substantially sooner.
>
> Scenario 3 - The Hard Takeoff to Singularity
> Assumptions:
> Automated engineering and nanotech are problems of similar difficulty, and
> will develop together.
I'd reverse the outcomes. Primitive nanotech results in destabilizing competition and wars fought with half-baked weapons (sc. 3). Instant omnipotent drextech lets the winner take over the world without much fuss and even evacuate the planet in case of emergency. Problem is, I think nanotech will start primitive.
--
sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
http://pobox.com/~sentience/AI_design.temp.html
http://pobox.com/~sentience/sing_analysis.html
Disclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you
everything I think I know.