Re: The International Forum on Globalization - Moresuitablefor Halloween th...

From: Spike Jones (
Date: Fri Feb 09 2001 - 18:11:31 MST

> J Corbally wrote:
> > Sorry, did you say "HONEST ELECTIONS"?? *James feels overwhelming
> > gurgle of laughter build in his stomach..*
> Michael Lorrey wrote: How are our elections dishonest?

There was an interesting blurb in the local paper about this
yesterday. When doing exit polling, the pollsters must always
add a small percentage to the Democratic ticket in order to
correctly predict the final outcome. This has never been explained
to my knowledge, why the small percentage must always
be added to the Dems, but it seems to hold historically.
They dont say what those percentages are.

In the Florida elections, the Republicans were ahead in the
exit polls, even when they added the historic national
average delta to the Dems, but if they added the historic
Florida average delta to the Dems, then the lead reversed,
or was right on the line. The news agencies were unsure
how to call that.

This long after the fact, Im still baffled about why there is
a delta that needs to be added to one side to predict an
outcome. It doesnt necessarily mean either side is cheating.
At the last Foresight nanoschmooze, we thought of two possible
explanations: Democrats are more likely to not tell pollsters
who they voted for? That pollsters avoid neighborhoods that
are overwhelmingly Democratic? Suggestions? spike

This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Mon May 28 2001 - 09:56:38 MDT