Re: What's in store for 2008?

From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (
Date: Thu Jan 18 2001 - 19:57:44 MST

"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" wrote:
> Samantha Atkins wrote:
> >
> > If I felt that strongly that it was critical I "win the race" or that
> > the SI comes first and has certain characteristics then I would be out
> > actively recruiting and sharing more working plans and projects. So
> > far, I haven't seen this. A project of this magnitude that is
> > supposedly going to deliver this major a result in a mere 7 years really
> > needs this level of information flow if it is to be counted on. I am a
> > software engineer. So I look for the engineering when I hear
> > projections like this.
> Whoa, whoa, whoa! I didn't say that we were going to deliver in 7 years;
> I said that the fact that I could envision a concrete path to developing
> AI was *one* of the factors behind my moving the estimate to 2008.
> Incidentally, 2008 is (also) my best-guess point for when nanotechnology
> starts dumping nanocomputers into AI or chaos into the world geopolitical
> system.

(PS: I hope like heck that we do deliver in 7 years. But I'm not saying
this out loud because it would tick off Samantha Atkins. Also, I see no
utility in trying to estimate how long it'll take to write code / produce
content, since the only way to find out is to actually do it.)

-- -- -- -- --
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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