Re: What's in store for 2008?

From: Samantha Atkins (
Date: Thu Jan 18 2001 - 16:14:24 MST

"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" wrote:

> Why the shift? Well, mainly:
> 1) Instead of visualizing the Singularity as a far-off celebration on the
> day that the whole human race gets together and networks our computing
> power to build the seed AI that is the final culmination of all our
> accumulated programming expertise and augmented intelligence, I figured
> out how to build the darn thing myself on a Beowulf network.
> The other reasons, in no particular order:

Really? Where is this writeen up? Where are the project development
plans? Where is the funding and staffing plan? I don't mean to pick on
you but I am hearing extravangant (imho) claims for one of the grandest
projects of all time but I am not seeing or hearing about much real
substance. Where is the beef?

> 2) I figured out that human cognition actually uses all that parallelized
> power mainly for performing operations in one neural "step" that are
> intrinsically serial - in other words, the brain needs a massive amount of
> power because the transistors run at 200hz. You'd need a massive amount
> of parallel power to run a spreadsheet if it ran on a 200hz CPU. So my
> estimate of the real computing power required to get human-equivalent
> intelligence got stepped down by three or four orders of magnitude.

Well that's an interesting theory. Please point to a write-up and to
evidence and hopefully some peer-review.

> 3) Nanotechnology moved waay faster than I expected. So, to a lesser
> extent, did cognitive science, Singularity memetics, and even non-SingInst
> commercial AI.
> 4) I stopped thinking in terms of "What is the precise degree of
> ludicrousness involved in the thought of my ever getting a cent from
> Social Security?" and shifted to "When do I need to do something if I want
> to do it before the Singularity?"

So exactly what is being done to produce the SI beyond the papers and
such? How do people get involved if interested and possessing needed
talents or desiring to invest?

- samantha

This archive was generated by hypermail 2b30 : Mon May 28 2001 - 09:56:20 MDT