Re: cancer rates (was: e: How do you calm down the hot-heads?)

From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sun Sep 14 2003 - 18:30:12 MDT

  • Next message: Paul McDermott: "Re: cancer rates (was: e: How do you calm down the hot-heads?)"

    On Sun, 14 Sep 2003, Robbie Lindauer wrote:

    > For the record, I never proposed the "zero" exposure rule.

    Understood. This was my incorrect extension of the direction in
    which I thought you were taking things.

    *But* there are cost-benefit tradeoffs. If we simply take asbestos
    (as perhaps a bad example) -- I've never seen any analysis of how
    many cases of cancer (or deaths) it may have caused vs. how many
    lives it may have saved (reduced numbers of fires, slower burn
    times allowing greater opportunities to escape, etc.). One could
    do a similar analysis with the analysis of reductions of pollutants
    in water supplies -- but one has to balance this with increased
    costs of water supplies that might prevent parents from providing
    their children with proper nutrition. One sees the debate perhaps
    most with so-called "organic" food. Producing organic food is
    in many cases less productive than using historic agricultural
    methods that may involve the use of pesticides. Result -- the
    food is more expensive. So I can buy organic produce but I
    may not be able to afford a car with side impact air bags.

    If one is being rational about this one has to think about the
    tradeoffs. There is a very big question as to whether we have
    already driven the requirements (in the U.S.) for minimal exposure
    to carcinogens so low that in most cases the costs significantly
    exceed the benefits. There is still a big debate that current
    carcinogen exposure standards are extrapolated from very high dose
    exposures and that because of the way DNA repair regulation works
    there may be minimal danger from low dose exposures.

    The rules are also inconsistent. Though we *know* that natural
    radon exposure in a number of areas is responsible for a significant
    fraction of lung cancers -- there are not any mandated laws requiring
    those houses be destroyed. You also don't see laws saying one cannot
    build homes above certain altitudes due to increased cosmic ray
    exposure.

    > Nor did I ever say that "all persons are created (immunologically)
    > equal".

    Agreed. This was my pointing out that there may not be universal
    solutions.

    > I'm talking about OBVIOUS things like dumping heavy metals and known
    > poisons into water supplies, storing radioactive waste near humans,
    > billowing smog into the air second after-second, etc.

    In the U.S. the water standards are very strict. I get a report every
    year from the city of Seattle with the results of their continual
    analysis of the water. People who have individual wells and who have
    to deal with the content of the groundwater are perhaps at greater risk.
    Low level exposure to radioactive waste may actually be beneficial for
    the DNA repair activation reasons I have outlined. The risk of the
    theft of such material for its use in a dirty bomb is probably a much
    greater risk at this time. The primary sources of smog at this
    time are probably automobiles and coal power plants. In these cases
    I would tend to agree that a little bit more economic and political
    pressure might result in improvements. But we (in the U.S.) have
    significantly improved things from the decades where high quantities
    of acid rain were poisoning our lakes. The real populations at risk
    are in the 3rd world countries where environmental quality standards
    are much lower than those in the U.S. Here one does see the air pollution
    standards in California slowly turning the screws on the automobile
    manufacturers. So the big remaining problem would appear to be G.B.
    attempting to relax regulations on the coal power plants -- but the states
    in New England are taking him to court on that one I believe.

    So overall I think things are not as bad as they may appear at first
    glance.

    Robert



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