Re: Fermi "Paradox"

From: BillK (bill@wkidston.freeserve.co.uk)
Date: Wed Aug 06 2003 - 14:40:54 MDT

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    On Tue Aug 05, 2003 10:37 am Randall Randall wrote:
    >
    > I read all that (really!) and I don't think it matters,
    > because, essentially, the universe at large is not the
    > world as we know it. The current evolutionary space is
    > incredibly limited in comparison to even our galaxy, and
    > all the strategy differences are for environments which
    > are already full of competing organisms.
    >
    > Those arguments will be great for explaining why not every
    > solar group sends out colonization groups when the visible
    > universe is full of life. It doesn't at all provide an
    > explanation of why a single solar group wouldn't bother to
    > colonize any of the astronomically greater resources
    > available and visible to it.
    >

    Hmmmm. So you are saying that you believe something will happen that has
    never happened before in the history of the universe? (Because there is
    no sign of them out there). And all the other times that the opposite
    happened in the past in our history, don't matter?

    Any civilization is a product of its past history. An immortal
    Z-strategy post-singularity civilization will be master of its local
    environment and using intelligence beyond our understanding to
    control its own evolution. As a Z-strategy civilization it will
    have a long history of seeking very low reproductive rates before it
    gained access to very large (possibly unlimited) resources.

    The r-strategy populations that maximise reproduction in our world are
    all natural evolution cases where suddenly an abundance of food becomes
    available. The post-singularity civilization is consciously controlling
    its own evolution. Big difference!

    On Tue Aug 05, 2003 11:19 Rafal Smigrodski wrote:
    >
    > Basically, an r-strategist is a k-strategist in optimal
    > circumstances, with no competition. A k-strategist is an r-strategist
    > in lean times.
    >
    > No basis for assuming any strategy as universal among space-capable
    > civs.
    >

    This statement is incorrect. The fact that a few populations move from
    one strategy to the other is well-known and much studied. Several
    species have been studied which go through repeated and regular
    population 'Boom and Bust' cycles. They start off as r-strategists and
    breed furiously. Next phase, they hit one of the limits, move to being
    K-strategists and the population collapses. Then the cycle starts over
    again. Any of the standard limiting factors can be the cause of the
    'Bust' phase, food, space, predators, parasites, etc. But this
    interesting phenomenon is driven by Nature 'red in tooth and claw' and
    is totally irrelevant to a post-singularity civilization which is
    intelligently controlling its own evolution.

    As a rule, populations DO NOT change from r-strategy to K-strategy. Once
    a Z-strategy elephant - always a Z-strategy elephant.
    Similarly, once an r-strategy rat - always an r-strategy rat. Rat high
    reproductive volume continues even in lean times. That's why an
    r-strategy species has a high reproductive rate - they know many
    children will die. That is their survival tactic.

    It is most unlikely (I believe impossible) that a K-strategy
    post-singularity civilization will suddenly decide that a better
    survival strategy is to breed like rats and swamp the universe.

    I suppose it is theoretically possible that they might suddenly decide
    "Hey look, we can afford it now. See at all that food out there. Let's
    go eat the universe!". Remember they have recently gained unlimited
    resources so they can afford the unlimited expansion.
    But if they already have unlimited resources, why would they want more?

    Infinity is so restricting, don't you think? ;)

    This expansion throughout the universe has not happened so far and it
    seems to me to be unlikely to the point of impossibility that a
    z-strategy civilization would do something so against the very nature of
    their civilization. As they have unlimited resources already, they don't
    need safety in numbers. Let's hear your reasoning if you wish them to
    behave otherwise!

    My description provides a reasoned explanation of why the universe is
    not full of either a single (the first!) species, or full of warring
    civilizations all trying to swamp the universe with their own species.
    i.e. The Great Silence is because that's the way advanced civilizations
    want it.

    The other alternative, of course, is as Lee originally suggested, that
    we are actually the first intelligent species in our light cone.

    BillK

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