From: Damien Broderick (damienb@unimelb.edu.au)
Date: Tue Jul 29 2003 - 22:52:07 MDT
At 09:31 AM 7/30/03 +0930, Emlyn wrote:
>I've run this idea by a sample of people working with me today, and they
>were repulsed by it.
Of course they were. It's the way it was presented.
>It's depressing, because it seemed like an obviously
>excellent idea to me when I first heard about it
It sounded exactly like a variant on Delphi forecasting to me, with
incentives and (I assume) cost deterrence against frivolous entries. Had it
been sold that way, it might have been widely accepted:
`Ten heads are better than one. Decades of studies show that the collective
estimates or intuitions of a group of ordinary people with ordinary
information from their lives are often more accurate than the assessments
of experts. This surprising result forms the basis of the new Homeland
Intuition program, where people will share and combine their understanding
of the world and its risks (calls will attract a small charge).'
Something along those lines. Ah well.
Damien Broderick
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