RE: genetic engineering of IQ thought experiment

From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Fri Jul 25 2003 - 13:46:25 MDT

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    Mez wrote:
    > I'm interested in feedback on this line of reasoning:
    >
    > Imagine a trait which has a 0.5 heritability. That is to say that
    > there's a 0.5 correlation between the trait and one's genes.
    > Specifically, let's use IQ. Estimates of the genetic component of IQ
    > vary, but 0.5 is not an unreasonable number.
    >
    > Now let's imagine you wish to bring into this world children with high
    > IQs. Using the DNA of someone known to have a high IQ, you create a
    > number of clones. In this case, let's pick Albert Einstein as the DNA
    > donor. And let's posit that his IQ was 160.
    >
    > Alternately, if science has identified every IQ-affecting gene (hah!),
    > you may start with any human embryos and modify their IQ-related genes
    > to match Einstein's.
    >
    > Here are my suppositions about this thought experiment:
    >
    > 1) We do not know the relative contribution of genes and environment
    > to Einstein's high IQ. In the absence of such specific knowledge, our
    > best choice is to use the statistical contribution of genes and
    > environment across the population. The 0.5 heritability in the
    > population would suggest that half of Einstein's deviation from the
    > norm in IQ was due to his deviation from typical human genes, and the
    > other half was due to environmental effects.
    >
    > 2) If we created many children who shared Einstein's IQ-related genes
    > and raised them in average environments (or a set of environments with
    > a distribution mirroring the social average), then we'd expect the
    > average IQ of such children to be 130.

    ### Well, not necessarily - if the genetic contribution to our particular
    Einstein's IQ minus average IQ was different from .5, then the mean of the
    clones' IQ would differ from 130. Say, he was a really, really genetically
    smart guy, but his particular environment stimulated his development less
    than average, then you could get a population of clones with average IQ 150.

    It's a bit tricky to apply regression to the mean to a single person,
    although if you apply it to a population of IQ 160 donors, you indeed get
    the results you describe.
    -----------------------------
    >
    > 3) The distribution of IQs of these children would form a normal bell
    > curve centered on 130.

    ### A normal distribution, yes.

    ---------------------------

    >
    > 4) The standard deviation of their IQs would be 10 points. (I'm
    > particularly interested in feedback on this point. Would the standard
    > deviation remain 10 points given that the genetic contributor to IQ is
    > fixed?)

    ### The SD of most IQ tests (WAIS) is usually 15 with a mean of 100. The SD
    would be reduced because of removal of the genetic component of variance.

    -----------------------------
    >
    > 5) As an extension of point 3, as many of these children would have
    > IQs of 100 (dead average) as would have IQs of 160 (Einstein)
    >
    ### Yes, with qualifications as in 1).

    ----------------------------------

    > Point 5, to me, is a pretty unexpected conclusion. But it seems be an
    > inevitable consequence of a 0.5 heritability of IQ, and the guess that
    > Einstein's deviation from the norm in particular was 50% accounted for
    > by genetics and 50% by environment.
    >

    ### Buying gametes from an IQ 160 donor will give your offspring only about
    11 IQ points over average, they say. Yes, IQ is a finicky trait.

    Rafal



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