RE: Fermi "Paradox"

From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Wed Jul 23 2003 - 17:59:13 MDT

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    Robin wrote:

    >
    > Our behavior is roughly what was optimal for having the most progeny
    > a hundred thousand years ago, but much of that behavior is hard-coded
    > in our genes, and genetic evolution is rather slow at adapting to our
    > now rapidly changing environment. With direct genetic modification,
    > uploads, etc., soon that adaptation should become much more rapid,
    > allowing evolution to catch up with our changing environment.

    ### I remember reading about an experiment on the growth of a colony of mice
    in a limited space. The mice were given food ad libitum, and were otherwise
    cared for as usual, except that their offspring was not transferred out of
    the cage. There were also no predators or parasites to interfere. After a
    few generations of exponential growth the mice became too crowded for the
    young too allow normal sexual maturation (this effect was presumably
    mediated by the stress or high concentrations of pheromones). Yet, the
    parent generation still bred, increasing crowding even further. After some
    time, all the parental generation mice became infertile with aging, and died
    out, leaving exclusively infertile mice, still quite crowded. After a few
    more months all of them died.

    In this case the evolved adaptations didn't catch up with the dramatic
    change in the environment, and resulted in death by overpopulation. Now, we
    can imagine many scenarios for the future, some of which might actually
    require the removal of the individual urge to procreate, in order to prevent
    catastrophic events. Let's say that a reliable modeling method predicts that
    the existence of more than N independent volitional systems (minds with
    independent, self-modifiable goals) within a volume of space inevitably
    results in a destructive chain reaction of internecine warfare. In that
    case, a coalition of minds might form, perhaps aided by techniques for
    assuring transparency of motives, to keep the population below N, perhaps a
    very low number, much less than the physical carrying capacity of the
    substrate. If the coalition fails, all minds die like stupid mice. This
    could be a situation where population stabilizes, because of objective,
    internal limitations on the stability of societies, perhaps imposed by
    constraints on information processing abilities achievable in this universe.

    I don't think this is the case, I tend to think that expansion and
    proliferation will be decisive for successful survival at superhuman levels
    of intelligence as well, but one never knows.

    Rafal



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