Re: Optimism [hall's merchants of immortality]

From: Aubrey de Grey (ag24@gen.cam.ac.uk)
Date: Sun Jul 20 2003 - 12:46:34 MDT

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    Brett Paatsch wrote:

    > As Mez said this is not really a book about life extension,
    > genetics and anti-agings techs.

    I haven't read MoI yet, but it sounds as though I should, even if it's
    not mainly a life-extension book.

    > Another point made in the book is that there are a number
    > of gerontologists and respected scientists like Steve Austad
    > and Leonard Hayflick (and around 49 others) who seriously
    > doubt that immortality will ever be achieved.

    Please post this quote. There was a "position statement" orchestrated
    by Hayflick and two others and endorsed by 48 more, whose main message
    was that *existing* so-called anti-aging medicine is a misnomer (which
    is why I was one of the 48), but which also (because of the bias of the
    organising trio) touched on longer-term prospects. But Austad refused
    to sign on.

    > a better approach to attacking the anti-aging, problem has been
    > suggested by Aubrey de Grey and this better (in my view approach)
    > has not been addressed by Hayflick or Austad.

    Correct, but deserving of a comment. Hayflick is simply very out of
    date on such issues and indeed has no real clue what I'm proposing in
    the necessary degree of detail, despite having taken part in my second
    roundtable (see my site http://www.gen.cam.ac.uk/sens/ and the links
    on the left). Austad on the other hand is among the most optimistic
    of the senior cadre of biogerontologists in his public statements: he
    is the one who said that the first 150-year-old is probably already
    alive, and in fact he is now on record that the first 160-year-old is
    probably already 60. He isn't really as up-to-speed on the details
    of what I propose, but he's definitely at my end of the spectrum of
    professional biogerontologists, so if MoI implies otherwise he's been
    misrepresented.

    > I'd really love to see Aubrey discuss the ideas in his paper
    > "An engineer's approach to the development of real anti-aging
    > medicine ( http://www.gen.cam.ac.uk/sens/manu16.pdf)
    > with the likes of Hayflick and perhaps especially Steve Austad.

    This may happen soon (with someone on Hayflick's side but much better
    informed and more influential). Watch this space.

    > The conventional approaches to
    > anti-aging are NOT going to lead to immortality or even
    > serious extension of life-spans soon, but Aubrey's approach
    > is more daring. Alas it is probably also a harder sell.

    Unclear. I always maintain that the only constituency I really need
    to get on my side, publicly, is a respectable number of my colleagues
    in biogerontology. I'm progressing quite well in that regard -- the
    conference coming up in Cambridge (http://www.gen.cam.ac.uk/iabg10/)
    is another big step in that regard. Once people like Austad start
    promoting my way of thinking on the TV, the war will be over. That
    may be sooner than you think.

    > there is a comment in the back of MoI where
    > Hall quotes Ali Brivanilou of the Rockefeller "the difference
    > between mouse embryological development at the molecular
    > level and human development was "night and day". "Everything
    > that we know about the mouse, (embryologically), we already
    > know is not true for humans".

    This is (a) hyperbole, (b) embryology, and most important (c) it is
    science rather than intuition. It doesn't matter a hoot how hard it
    will actually be to translate late-onset mouse life extension therapy
    to humans: what matters is that the general public will intuitively
    feel that it may be hard but there's a fighting chance that it'll be
    possible within a decade or two. That public intuition will force
    public investment in pushing the effort to translate the technology
    to humans as fast as it can go. How fast that is doesn't matter,
    just as the war on cancer is getting just as much money now as in
    the 70s despite having, shall we say, rather overrun its schedule.

    Aubrey de Grey



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