The Limits of Complexity and Change

From: Technotranscendence (neptune@superlink.net)
Date: Sun Jul 20 2003 - 07:06:02 MDT

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    May-June issue of _The Futurist_ has an article by Theodore Modis, "The
    Limits of Complexity and Change," that concludes the technoprogress and
    complexity increase for humanity peaked around 1990 and is now in
    decline. I guess the pessimists have come out of the woodwork.

    Any thoughts?

    For me, one. While I understand Modis' point, I really don't think he
    transparently demonstrates his methodology. He's making quantitative
    predictions and retrodictions based on qualitative methods. Even if his
    view were correct in the small, it might not be in the large. (He uses
    punctuated equilibria as a metaphor. That cuts both ways. Yes, humans
    might reach their complexity/change limit, but that might just mean we
    have to wait for a phase transition a la the Singularity.:)

    Cheers!

    Dan
    http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/



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