From: Technotranscendence (neptune@superlink.net)
Date: Sun Jul 20 2003 - 07:06:02 MDT
May-June issue of _The Futurist_ has an article by Theodore Modis, "The
Limits of Complexity and Change," that concludes the technoprogress and
complexity increase for humanity peaked around 1990 and is now in
decline. I guess the pessimists have come out of the woodwork.
Any thoughts?
For me, one. While I understand Modis' point, I really don't think he
transparently demonstrates his methodology. He's making quantitative
predictions and retrodictions based on qualitative methods. Even if his
view were correct in the small, it might not be in the large. (He uses
punctuated equilibria as a metaphor. That cuts both ways. Yes, humans
might reach their complexity/change limit, but that might just mean we
have to wait for a phase transition a la the Singularity.:)
Cheers!
Dan
http://uweb.superlink.net/neptune/
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