RE: Optimism [Was: flame wars]

From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Thu Jul 17 2003 - 08:56:32 MDT

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    Anders Sandberg wrote,
    > Interesting point. I think this is part of the truth (I see
    > the average mood of the computer science students at the
    > Institute every day), but it is also a hint that we might be
    > better off without "fair weather extropians". There was a
    > technological determinism-optimism of 90s transhumanism that
    > I have come to think of as both naive and passivating. It is
    > not dynamic optimism: it is passive optimism. If the
    > singularity is coming and Wired is always right, what use is
    > there of doing anything except cheerleading?

    This is the most important point that I think a few people have been
    complaining about. Some people have gotten so optimistic that they
    become inactive. Some people have literally argued against a Pluto
    mission, claiming that Pluto will be turned into computronium before we
    get there. Some people have literally argued against cryonics saying we
    will be immortal before we get old. Some people have literally argued
    against saving for retirement say that that the singularity will upload
    us before we retire. The sad truth is that many people are so confident
    about the future that they won't lift a finger to do anything. It turns
    into a faith-based religion where real work is worthless and just
    sitting back and doing nothing is the wisest course of action.

    People who complain about our slow progress, question whether things
    will work, point out flaws in existing plans, etc., are the real heroes
    of tomorrow. They are the engineers of the future. People who don't
    know enough technology to see the flaws, or who are so optimistic that
    they don't see any need to address the flaws, are the people who are
    delaying progress. Dynamic Optimism was never intended to be a
    faith-based position. We were supposed to be optimistic that everything
    was possible so that we would continue working toward a solution while
    others had long since given up. Optimism should be an excuse to work
    harder for the future, not an excuse to sit back and do nothing.

    > Dynamic optimism is about actually doing something
    > constructive. Sure, the IT sector is not doing great. But
    > then we better invent new killer apps or find ways of using
    > the existing in better ways. With cheap programming labor
    > many new projects can be implemented that were too expensive
    > before. Cryonics doesn't work? Too bad, let's find another
    > solution. People are not acknowledging Drexler in
    > nanotechnology? Write papers that do. Investments went bad?
    > Start over, a bit more cautiously.
    > Biotech is under regulatory and luddite attack. So? Go out
    > and defend it!

    Excellent advice! I am seeing more and more people starting to question
    our past irrational exuberance. I hope that this will lead to a new
    stage of increased activity and action. Those who complain about
    problems are not the enemy. It is those who see no problems who are the
    enemy. The first stage in any technology or engineering project is to
    identify the problem. Only those who are dissatisfied with our current
    progress will do better in the future.

    > I found Dr. Bainbridge's talk at TransVision 03 very constructive
    > (http://www.transhumanism.com/articles_more.php?id=697_0_4_0_M
    ). We are getting challenged, now we better respond.
     
    > Personally I am *more* optimistic about the transhuman future today
    than
    > I was just three years ago. We are finally starting to grow up.
     
    Excellent article. It is so close to my recent rants that reading it
    gives me déjà vu. I am glad that I am not the only one who feels like
    we are either growing up or need to grow up.

    -- 
    Harvey Newstrom, CISM, CISSP, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC
    Certified InfoSec Manager, Certified IS Security Pro, NSA-certified
    InfoSec Assessor, IBM-certified Security Consultant, SANS-cert GSEC
    <HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>
    


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