From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Mon Jul 07 2003 - 12:03:52 MDT
Giu1i0 Pri5c0 [mailto:gpmap@runbox.com] wrote,
> You have a good point. I would not say that cryonics is lower in
> plausibility now than in earlier years, rather that we have now a better
> understanding of the difficulties involved, so that realistic estimates of
> when cryonics patients may be revived have to be set later in the
> future.
Your entire posting sounds like this. You seem to agree with my basic
point, but you wouldn't say it in such negative terms. The examples you
discuss, cryonics, cancer, etc. are the same. We had predicted success much
earlier. We now know the problem is much harder than we thought.
Technology is racing ahead much faster, but we are pushing specific
milestones back farther and farther with our newer knowledge.
In short, I don't think anybody is really disagreeing with me. They just
don't want to use negative terminology. They refuse to call these
occurrences delays, setbacks, or failed predictions. They explain away how
it was government technology, poor information, mistaken assumptions, or
whatever. But my point remains. Predictions have been pushed back before.
Current predictions may need to be pushed back.
We can't jump on every hyped theory and then assume exponential growth from
there. Sometimes there are delays, setbacks, and failures. Sometimes we
have to find a different approach when one path doesn't pan out. This is
normal scientific method and experimentation. However, many people here
don't seem to understand this. There seems to be a mistaken belief that we
only move forward, that things go faster and faster without delays, and that
all scientific breakthroughs pan out and move into production. That's not
how it works. Those are the faith-based promises of hype and PR, not of
real scientists.
My original point was merely explaining my frustration that there are some
setbacks occasionally. This has since evolved into a further frustration
that many people seem to believe that there are never setbacks and I am only
imagining problems where none exist. Sometimes there are problems, folks.
Pretending that they don't exist won't help us.
-- Harvey Newstrom, CISM, CISSP, IAM, IBMCP, GSEC Certified InfoSec Manager, Certified IS Security Pro, NSA-certified InfoSec Assessor, IBM-certified Security Consultant, SANS-cert GSEC <HarveyNewstrom.com> <Newstaff.com>
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