From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Wed Jun 11 2003 - 16:20:52 MDT
Ramez Naam wrote:
The potential market for ALT-711 is multiple billions of dollars per year.
### There is a lot of competition between blood pressure drugs, so even if
the pie is huge, the slices can get thin. This is a source of uncertainty -
if ALT-711 develops as something more than just a blood pressure drug in the
minds of physicians and patients, the gain could be as you say, but
otherwise sales could be disappointing.
I have Alteon stock and for now I'm holding on to it, especially after
reading your analysis. BTW, my purchase of Alteon is an example of using
generally accessible data to gain above-average return - I did believe that
AGE formation is a very smart hypothesis ever since I read about it in SciAm
decades ago, and when Robert Bradbury mentioned Alteon, I had more than just
a hunch that their drug would work. For the same reasons, well-grounded,
professional optimism regarding the underlying technology, and not technical
analysis of the stock itself, I put almost all of my cash in AFFX when they
were still trading at 16$ a share. I didn't have the sense to sell it when
they traded at 160, so I have to admit that aside from the narrow use of my
professional knowledge I am a very clumsy trader.
Rafal
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